QASED Non-government Research Organization
By: Abdulbari Kabiri
As we speak, the vast majority of Afghans remain victims of the war that brings violence, hunger, disease in the cold weather of this winter. The vicious conflict has many domestic, regional and international dimensions and is currently threatening a new scaled up violence. Afghans have suffered beyond imagination from this conflict and although the violence may have decreased over time, still tens of thousands of civilians are killed or wounded each year. Over 10,000 civilian casualties were reported in 2019, over 100,000 since 2010. Casualties of Afghan armed forces are reported to have been 45,000 deaths between 2014 and 2019. Casualties of the Taliban and other armed groups are not known but seem to be similar or higher and many more of their members are imprisoned. Even after the “US-Taliban” peace deals and “government-Taliban” direct peace talks, the casualties of war are still very high, 745 reported killed and 869 injured in November 2020 alone.
In order to assist in better understanding the current situation, we suggest the following facts to be considered in the peace talks:
First: The Country with a History of War: The war started almost 40 years ago with international players and globalised ideals. Since then, the country has been twice subject to foreign military intervention, each had a specific agenda, objectives, and defined situation. Regional powers have their own agendas and are adding to the conflict in order to shape future of the country as they wish. And finally, conflicts have crossed borders and each brings their grievances to Afghanistan.
In December 1979 the former Soviet Union shifted its forces in support of proletarian internationalism to backing up a marginalised left wing government. The national resistance against the Soviet Union continued with the full support of NATO, most of the Gulf States, Iran and Pakistan to fight a common enemy, the hegemony of the new young socialism block that was fast spreading. This has shifted a huge amount of armaments and financial resources to a variety of groups which were able to form top to bottom unregulated and unaccountable organisations; each proclaimed a cause and set up their objective as how to reach their goals.
Following the withdrawal of the Soviet Union and a subsequent fall of pro-Soviet Union regime, the civil war continued for a further decade until the United States and their allies attacked and ousted the Taliban regime that had been in power for only a few years. The later was replaced by a new government aimed for more inclusive, democratic and institution centric administration. However, this was not the end of war but was a new beginning of an old war that has been long needed to end.
Afghans are still scarred by the war crimes committed as the world’s most advanced weapons were used in a country where those weapons have not been manufactured. In many occasions, the crimes committed are alleged to be war crimes and crimes against humanity. Victims have attempted to raise voices for justice about the extra-judiciary killings of thousands of political prisoners by the government after People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan ceased power in 1978, the mass killings, rape and abduction of civilians when armed groups were fighting for power during 1992-1996, the mass killings of men and boys in Mazar-e-Sharif during 1997-1998 and the mass killing of war prisoners in Northern Afghanistan at the end of 2001. Similarly, other atrocities of the same nature were reported to the International Criminal Court for investigation. The later was stopped when the United States opposed the investigation and sanctioned some of its officials.
The war in Afghanistan is well known for its length, brutality and the adverse effects on the country itself and on the region and worldwide. It is estimated that more than 2 million Afghans were killed in the conflict, over 2 million injured or disabled and several millions internally displaced or immigrated out of the country.
Second: The Current Government Has Failed to Protect the Nation: For many years the government was unable to eradicate underlying causes of war. It has failed to bring political inclusion, economic recovery and social justice as essential elements to lasting peace. The government failed to create large scale employment opportunities to bring jobs to the economy and divert youth to engage in development activities and to take firm steps towards a real economic recovery. Officials in the government are known to have engaged in widespread corruption and have had a history of internal fights for taking a larger slice of the public administration as a so called “unique source of power and wealth”. To this effect, groups inside the government widely threatened violence when events did not support their stands and when favours were denied to them.
Historically, opposition groups – mainly the Taliban – used the situation to regroup and prove that they can stand as a defiant force worth to be considered in any political set up. Other groups also flourished, Islamic State group for example. Drug usage and production along other illegal activities were also increased over the years which have also added to the strength of the various armed groups.
The current chaotic situation could only be reversed through substantial changes on the ground, to achieve the inclusion that is needed to end the armed conflict. The government was elected with a mandate to fulfil their duties to protect, safeguard and provide functioning governance.
Third: Existence of Diverse Groups with Geographical Autonomy: Similar to other countries in conflict, Afghanistan has left to the mercy of strong military and paramilitary groups, with some geographical autonomy, which is shaping the politics of the country. The Taliban dominating or influencing over fifty percent of the country, current party to the peace negotiation, is a major force capable to progress further. Other armed groups are also capable of complex and organised military operations in the country, such attacks on hospitals, universities and other institutions. Political parties mostly formed in ethnic and religious set ups also have potential in participating in armed activities if the peace process failed. There is mass poverty, drugs use, lack of education and lack of understanding about the nature of the conflict. Recruiting for the war has never been easier than today, because the youth are unemployed, have lost hope for the future and feel that the life is not worth living. Also, weapons are supplied and shifted to the country and often without any cost to the end user. Afghan elites were in fight with each other for many decades with desire to gain power and wealth and are willing to lead the war on any cost.
Appeal for Reconciliation
As the regional and international support for peace and stability increases, the warring parties i.e. the Afghan Government and the Taliban must listen to the concerns of the people to stop the war sooner than later. Afghan government have a mandate to govern, safeguard and protect the national interests. The Taliban also claim representation of major parts of the country. It is unfortunately, that efforts and resources of both warring parties are diverted to defeat each other, and often use unjustified violence against civilians as a method of pressure to achieve their objectives. The situation increased the spreading of fear in the population about the scale-up of the violence in the event of the proposed withdrawal of the US forces, scheduled conditionally for April 2021. In the lack of a comprehensive peace agreement, the civil war may soon intensify, which could bring the country back to dark days of civil war era of the 1990s. This failure will further damage the credibility of the government, as well as the Taliban and individuals leading the war, may bear criminal responsibility for the tens of thousands killed each year!
